You are using an outdated browser. Please upgrade your browser to improve your experience
* The ninth annual Strategic Outlook from Dragonfly also predicts a further deterioration in China-US relations with the potential to greatly disrupt the global order
Next year will be defined by a ‘global unravelling’, according to the ninth annual Strategic Outlook from leading security intelligence experts Dragonfly, with a likely security crisis over Taiwan, escalating tensions between China and the US, and a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Together they paint a picture of an increasingly volatile world that is seeing the erosion of its existing systems of global cooperation and governance.
These are just three of the 520 thematic and regional forecasts from Dragonfly’s Strategic Outlook. It also provides senior leaders and risk specialists with detailed scenarios with warning indicators for 15 geopolitical flashpoints, key monitoring points and dates, and interactive risk dashboards to inform executive business decisions.
The Strategic Outlook has a strong track record, demonstrated in last year’s forecast which warned that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was high nearly three months before it occurred, against the common grain of thinking at the time. This allowed some clients to have adequate time to plan evacuations and take action pre-invasion.
Dragonfly’s specialists assess that the geopolitical risk of greatest consequence to the global order in 2023 is the prospect of a security crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Although an invasion is highly unlikely, a security crisis such as a naval blockade is increasingly probable. This would cause numerous supply chain and inflationary pressures that would further the global unravelling, and potentially turn it into a near virtual collapse of the global order.
Some of the other key trends and forecasts that Dragonfly project and assess for 2023 include:
Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at Dragonfly, explains: “The systems, institutions, and orders that have underpinned relative global stability and security for decades are unravelling and taking new forms. Strategic Outlook 2023 provides our latest assessment of persistent volatility as the world rapidly adapts to changes and challenges shaped by war, great power competition, and economic turmoil.”
David Claridge, Chief Executive Officer of Dragonfly, says: “At a time where forecasting political risks is especially crucial to sustain business operations, Strategic Outlook 2023 allows the world’s leading organisations and decision makers to anticipate threats and plan how they will react to them with confidence. The strength and depth of the excellent Dragonfly team means we are able to offer ever-better estimates of global and regional challenges that lie ahead.”
See the full Dragonfly Strategic Outlook 2023 here and find out more about Dragonfly’s political risk services here.
– Ends –
Cameron Cote/ Peter McCarthy / David Butcher – Four Communications
44 (0)7825 095130 /+ 44 (0)7393 750755 / +44 (0)7834 350101
Dragonfly is a geopolitical and security intelligence service for the world’s leading organisations. From the highest-risk environments to the boardroom, Dragonfly enables its clients to make confident decisions and put them ahead of risks to achieve their goals. Dragonfly goes beyond the limits of real-time information to deliver early warning intelligence, by fusing the multiplying power of knowledge, data, technology, service, capability and human expertise.
Its flagship Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) provides bespoke, forward-looking and actionable all-source security intelligence, including in-depth assessment, risk modelling and analytics.
Dragonfly has a global presence, with offices in London, New York, Washington, D.C. and Singapore.
Further information about the full suite of Dragonfly’s security intelligence services is available at www.dragonflyintelligence.com
Be the first to receive our articles, news and insight on global risk, industry trends and what's new at Dragonfly