Political Risk

Political Risk Forecasting risks in frontier markets

Consultative political risk management services for investors in emerging markets

We help clients to make confident, informed political risk management decisions. Our guidance fuses analysis across the spectrum of insurable and uninsurable political risks with forecasts and intelligence from the highest quality sources.

The expertise and professionalism of our political risk analysts are perfectly complemented by the quality of intelligence services. The global reach and knowledge of our regional experts ensures that our global political risk consultancy provides the answers that clients need to secure the integrity and security of their investments. Our rigour and understanding of complex political conditions underpin our reputation as a leading political risk consultancy team.



Clients who partner with Dragonfly benefit from our:

  • Expert team – Our specialists understand ground-level political drivers as acutely as the wider geopolitical risks that influence them
  • Methodology – We combine qualitative and quantitative approaches with empirical data gathered from expert human sources and open-source research, to model our clients’ specific risks
  • Approach – From market entry studies to highly specific assessments of projects and investments, we work directly with stakeholders and clients to establish a deep and immersive understanding of their businesses.

Key features of our political risk service include:

  • Political risk analysis and assessments
  • Political risk consulting
  • Political risk monitoring
  • Country risk mapping
  • Forecasting government action and decisions
  • Identifying and implementing responses to legislation and government action
  • Exploring government strategy


An investment bank was considering taking a significant position in Lebanon, but was concerned about the country’s political volatility and challenged by acquiring a clear picture of its future.

Our team was tasked to answer several highly specific questions concerning political risk, security and economics in Lebanon, as well as on the potential impacts on the bank’s interests in the country. Having devised many questions concerning the intentions, decision-making and political leanings of key stakeholders and political players, we undertook high-level source enquiries. In a short space of time, we were able to provide direct answers and paint a detailed picture of the emerging political landscape.



A major extractives client investing in Papua New Guinea commissioned our team to undertake three separate studies into different areas of their political risk exposure, supplemented by ongoing intelligence collection and monitoring. The studies, which drew heavily on human source intelligence because of the paucity of open source information, covered assessments on political stability, social stability, conflict risk, macroeconomic risk, as well as detailed intelligence for community engagement decision-making.

Based upon our reporting, our client was able to actively limit its business exposure, anticipate national and local disputes and make vital decisions based upon sound strategic intelligence and expert analysis.


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Contact us about our intelligence and advisory services