Strategic Outlook 2021 | Press Release


Dragonfly Ltd (‘Dragonfly’) has released Strategic Outlook 2021 – Control and Containment, its seventh annual forecast for security and intelligence leaders.


*Click on the link below to access the new interactive digital format – For best results, we recommend that you view this in a desktop browser.

Strategic Outlook 2021 is a global intelligence estimate for those whose decision-making relies on the anticipation of geostrategic security risks. Its aims are to provide early warning and reduce the potential for unanticipated risks to help our clients plan safe, secure and profitable business activity.
Strategic Outlook 2021 provides:

  • Over 370 forecasts on issues relevant to security, crisis and geopolitical risk
  • Early warning indicators as ongoing monitoring points to watch out for through 2021
  • Infographics that illustrate our assessments in a clear, digestible snapshot
  • Outliers to challenge assumptions and encourage anticipation of higher-impact events
  • Thematic analysis to help readers interpret and predict intentions, actions and outcomes


Key Quote(s) from Henry Wilkinson

“In Strategic Outlook 2021 we forecast what kind of world will probably emerge after a year of pandemic, lockdowns and restrictions. The rollout of vaccines raises the possibility that the coronavirus will be brought under some semblance of control by the end of the year. But recovery is likely to be uneven and highly politicised, and come amid significant change, uncertainty and instability.”

“The strategic outlook for 2021 is a world that is more unstable, less-cooperative and more prone to crises and conflicts. The coronavirus pandemic has raised the stakes in geopolitics. It has also laid bare deeply dysfunctional relations within and between countries, as well as the state of governance worldwide. The common response to the virus has been containment and control. This is likely to be an apt description for how many governments behave more broadly in 2021.”

Key Quote(s) from readers

“The Strategic Outlook provides a rigorous and insightful assessment of the most significant security challenges facing businesses in the year ahead. We find it particularly useful for stress testing our own internal assessments, and in helping us to identify the key emerging issues and trends that could have implications for our operations.” 

– Intelligence manager at an international entertainment company
“Timely and insightful reporting from Dragonfly helped shape and calibrate our security posture at numerous destinations around the world in 2020 and the TerrorismTracker provides a high quality and comprehensive overview of the terrorist threat”

– International risk advisor at a leading global airline


“The Dragonfly platform, products and in-house methodology is consistent and impressive. The reports are well researched, well balanced and objective and probably some of the best I’ve used and referenced. This has enabled a wider geopolitical oversight of events that could influence aviation from different perspectives. This capability has enabled us to develop a pro-active forward-looking information/ intelligence function that underpins the vision of a resilient group.”

– Director of Security at an International NGO


“Our organisation utilises Dragonfly services because they consistently provide excellent analyses, webinars, and direct access to expert analysts.  I always look forward to the annual Strategic Outlooks because they provide invaluable insight into trends that all security professionals should be aware of and expect to mitigate in the upcoming year.

– Director of Security at an International Airline




For additional information or to speak to Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer, Director, please contact in the first instance.

Key referencing terminology / notes to press

  • “Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at The Dragonfly”
  • “The Dragonfly”

About Henry Wilkinson

Chief Intelligence Officer, Henry has overall responsibility for the group’s worldwide political and security intelligence gathering, risk and threat assessments and analytical products and services, including SIAS.

About The Dragonfly

The Dragonfly Ltd is a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) is a strategic, operational and tactical intelligence service for global businesses and international organisations. SIAS delivers actionable, prioritised, forward-looking, all-source intelligence for security and crisis management decision making, advice, policy, planning and operations.

The company was founded in 1997, and has offices in Washington DC, New York, London, Moscow, Dubai, Beirut and Hong Kong.

Further information is available at

About SIAS (Security Intelligence & Analysis Service)

Strategic Outlook 2021 is produced by Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS), an intelligence capability for leaders in security and geopolitics.

Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) is a strategic, operational and tactical intelligence service used by leading global businesses, international organisations, NGOs, and governments.

SIAS delivers actionable, prioritised, forward-looking, all-source intelligence for security and crisis management decision making, advice, policy, planning and operations.

Further information is available at:

About The Strategic Outlook 2021

Strategic Outlook 2021 is for those whose decisions and responsibilities hinge upon geopolitical and strategic security risks. It aims to provide strategic early warning of crises, changes and trends in risk, scenarios to inform planning, monitoring points for informed observers, and contextual frameworks to interpret coming events.

Strategic Outlook 2021 is intended to be a practical working document for senior decision-makers and risk professionals.

Further information is available at: 



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