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Produced specifically to inform Dragonfly’s clients, it provides a high-level review of security and crisis risks likely to impact multinational businesses and international organisations in the coming 12 months and beyond.
This year, it contains more than 260 forecasts on a range of issues relevant to security, crisis and geopolitical risk across every region. Intended to be a practical working document, Strategic Outlook 2019 also provides dozens of early warning indicators for ongoing monitoring through 2019. It flags outliers to challenge assumptions and encourage anticipation of higher-impact surprise events. And it provides thematic analysis across different regions to help readers interpret and predict intentions, actions and outcomes in 2019.
The theme of Strategic Outlook 2019 is ‘Towards a Zero-Sum World’. Across nearly every region, we forecast that authoritarian, right-wing and nationalist governments and movements will grow in strength and influence. The global balance of ideas and power is changing. And with it, the longer-term prospects for states to jointly tackle challenges like climate change, environmental degradation and water scarcity are thinning when they most need attention. All perpetuate insecurity and instability, limit development and drive migration. This feeds a cycle of complex risks that will become even harder to resolve. The need for global leadership on such issues is as obvious as it is presently lacking.
Key themes include:
Strategic Outlook 2019 also provides a range of monitoring points to enable observers to anticipate changes in risk and re-calibrate forecasts when events defy prediction. And it flags outliers – outcomes that sit on the outer edges of probability but that are plausible and consequential enough to merit further thought for crisis planning. Key monitoring points include:
Strategic Outlook 2019 was produced by the analysts of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS), which provides direct intelligence support to a rapidly growing number of corporate security and crisis management teams in leading global businesses across a broad array of sectors.
Key Quote(s) from Henry Wilkinson
“The Strategic Outlook 2019 aims to help Dragonfly’s clients better understand transformation and change in the global risk environment, anticipate and plan for crises, and foresee improvements to gain an early commercial advantage. Forecasting is not an exact science but it is an essential process that starts conversations and the process of building resilience. Our assessments show that the need for global businesses to take board-level ownership of geopolitical risks, and invest in intelligence that one can trust amid a growing tide of disinformation, has never been more urgent or important.”
“Strategic Outlook is intended to encourage our clients to consider, discuss and plan for future risk scenarios, and to reduce the risk of surprise by stimulating forethought. For us, it informs our intelligence collection and plans and resourcing for the coming year.”
Key Quote(s) from readers
“The Strategic Outlook serves as a key touchpoint for our annual planning process and is consistently insightful, relevant, and timely.” – Intelligence director of a major, global hospitality company
“The Strategic Outlook is essential to any security and intelligence leader in global businesses. It is business critical to our planning process.” – Leading Global Hotel Chain
For additional information or to speak to Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org in the first instance.
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Key referencing terminology / notes to press
About Henry Wilkinson
Head of Intelligence and Analysis, Henry has overall responsibility for the group’s worldwide political and security intelligence gathering, risk and threat assessments and analytical products and services, including SIAS.
About The Dragonfly
The Dragonfly is a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands.
The Dragonfly provides intelligence, investigation and security services to support organisations dealing with complex international threats. Our guidance, intelligence and analysis help many of the world’s foremost businesses negotiate challenging and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right partners.
The company was founded in 1997, employs over 125 people and has offices in Washington DC, London, Moscow, Dubai, Beirut and Hong Kong.
Further information is available at www.dragonflyintelligence.com
About SIAS (Security Intelligence & Analysis Service)
SIAS provides security and risk management professionals with a responsive strategic and protective intelligence capability. We work with clients to deliver high quality, forward-looking, actionable intelligence and analysis applicable to business risk management decision-making, planning and crisis response.
Further information is available at
About The Strategic Outlook 2019
The Strategic Outlook 2019 is our fifth annual global security and geopolitical forecast for security and intelligence leaders in global businesses, governments and international organisations, enabling informed decision-making in an increasingly adversarial environment. It represents the joint assessments of our Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) analysts across all regional desks.
The Strategic Outlook is primarily for those tasked with managing risks in international businesses and organisations. It attempts to interpret and foresee how wider, political, economic and social trajectories may influence security and crises.
Further information is available at: https://www.dragonflyintelligence.com/campaigns/strategic-outlook-2019-lp