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Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map 2020

This is the thirteenth year Dragonfly Intelligence has partnered with Aon to produce the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map by providing source data and expert analysis.

The country risk ratings draw heavily on proprietary data and represent the joint assessments of Dragonfly and Aon. The map and its supporting analysis aims to provide a global overview of exposure to insurable political violence risks for businesses and their supply chains in 2020.

The Covid-19 pandemic is a turning point and will have widespread geopolitical impact. The socio-economic implications of Covid-19 are likely to be significant, creating complex security challenges long-term. Particularly hard-hit countries – such as those with a significant footprint in the tourism and retail sector, or where there are proportionally more deaths from the pandemic – have greater potential for civil unrest and government-focused protest regarding response and lockdown measures. Economic grievances may also incubate nationalist extremism or encourage the use of political violence at a sub-state or state level. Riots, civil unrest and extreme right-wing terrorism punctuated 2019 and this trend looks set to continue in 2020.

Listen to the podcast below, which is a recording of Aon's 2020 Risk Maps Covid-19 webinar, featuring comments from Aon, Dragonfly Intelligence and Continuum Economics. 

Key Findings

  • Three in five countries face riots or civil commotion in 2020.
  • Extreme right-wing terrorist attacks have increased in frequency for at least five consecutive years and have doubled globally in the last three years.
  • Nearly half of all countries face terrorism risk in 2020.
  • Islamic State and its affiliates mounted a total of 570 attacks globally in 2019, down from 810 the year before.

Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map editions: